Briefing book · week of October 12, 2026
What economic data is released this week?
The next scheduled release on this desk is U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (BLS) on October 16, 2026 at 08:30 ET. Latest prints: U.S. CPI 3.7% y/y (Sep 2026), unemployment 4.2% and payrolls +29k (Sep 2026), 10-year Treasury 5.19% (October 14, 2026).
Release board
Scheduled U.S. statistical releases and FOMC decisions, Monday to Friday. Today is marked.
This week October 12, 2026 – October 16, 2026
No tracked release
No tracked release
- Real Earnings · BLS
- Consumer Price Index · BLS
- Producer Price Index · BLS
- U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes · BLS
Next week October 19, 2026 – October 23, 2026
No tracked release
- State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) · BLS
- Usual Weekly Earnings of Wage and Salary Workers · BLS
No tracked release
No tracked release
Latest prints
The most recent official value for each indicator, the comparison that matters, and when the next figure is due.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Comparison | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index (CPI-U)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | 3.7% y/y | September 2026 | 3.4% in Aug 2026; +0.6% m/m (SA) | November 10, 2026, 08:30 ET |
| Core CPI (less food and energy)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | 2.6% y/y | September 2026 | 2.4% in Aug 2026; +0.3% m/m (SA) | November 10, 2026, 08:30 ET |
| Unemployment rateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | 4.2% | September 2026 | 4.1% in Aug 2026; +0.1 pt m/m | November 6, 2026, 08:30 ET |
| Nonfarm payrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | +29k jobs | September 2026 (prelim.) | +133k in Aug 2026; 3-mo avg +51k | November 6, 2026, 08:30 ET |
| Average hourly earningsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | 3.0% y/y | September 2026 | $37.81 per hour; +0.1% m/m | November 6, 2026, 08:30 ET |
| Treasury yield curveU.S. Department of the Treasury | 5.19% 10-yr | October 14, 2026 | 2-yr 4.82%; 10y−2y +0.37 pt | Each business day |
| Euro area HICP inflationEurostat | 3.8% y/y | September 2026 | 3.2% in Aug 2026; core 2.5% (Sep 2026) | See agency calendar |
| ECB key interest ratesEuropean Central Bank | 2.50% deposit rate | September 16, 2026 | MRO 2.65%; MLF 2.90% | See agency calendar |
Desk notes
One computed observation per indicator, written from the numbers above.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI-U). Headline CPI rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.4% a month earlier.
- Core CPI (less food and energy). Core CPI rose 2.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.4% a month earlier.
- Unemployment rate. The three-month average unemployment rate is 4.13%; over the last 36 months the rate ranged from 3.7% (Sep 2023) to 4.5% (Nov 2025).
- Nonfarm payrolls. Average monthly change: +51k over 3 months, +66k over 6 months, and +41k over 12 months. Over the past year payrolls changed by +496 thousand in total.
- Average hourly earnings. With headline CPI up 3.7% over the same 12 months, nominal wage growth of 3.0% implies real hourly earnings growth of roughly −0.7% (computed here as (1+wage)/(1+CPI)−1; BLS publishes its own Real Earnings release).
- Treasury yield curve. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is +0.91 point. A one-year-earlier comparison (October 14, 2025) had the 10-year at 4.03% and the 2-year at 3.48%.
- Euro area HICP inflation. The ECB's medium-term target is 2% HICP inflation; the latest reading is +1.8 point from that level.
- ECB key interest rates. The most recent change in the deposit facility rate took effect on September 16, 2026, from 2.25% to 2.50%.
Reading the releases
Guides that explain what each statistic measures and how to read a release, sourced to the agencies.
- October 16, 2026How do the ECB's three key interest rates work?
The European Central Bank sets three key rates: the deposit facility rate (paid on banks' overnight deposits), the main refinancing operations rate (for weekly loans) and the marginal lending facility rate (for overnight borrowing). With ample excess liquidity, the deposit facility rate is the one that steers euro money-market rates.
- October 16, 2026HICP vs CPI: how euro area and U.S. inflation differ
HICP is the euro area's harmonised consumer price index compiled by Eurostat; CPI is the U.S. index compiled by BLS. The biggest difference is housing: U.S. CPI includes owners' equivalent rent, while HICP leaves out owner-occupied housing costs, so the two rates are not directly comparable.
- October 16, 2026How does the FOMC set U.S. interest rates?
The Federal Open Market Committee sets a target range for the federal funds rate at eight scheduled meetings a year. Twelve members vote: seven Fed governors, the New York Fed president and four rotating Reserve Bank presidents. The decision is published in a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
- October 16, 2026How do you read the Treasury yield curve?
The Treasury yield curve plots yields on U.S. government debt from one month to 30 years. Normally longer maturities yield more. Analysts watch the 10-year minus 2-year and 10-year minus 3-month spreads; when they turn negative the curve is inverted, which has preceded past U.S. recessions with long, variable lags.
- October 15, 2026How is the Consumer Price Index calculated?
The BLS calculates the CPI by pricing a fixed basket of consumer goods and services across U.S. urban areas each month, combining price changes within about 240 item categories and 75 areas, then weighting them by household spending shares.
- October 15, 2026Why does economic data get revised?
Economic data are revised because first estimates are built from incomplete samples and later replaced with fuller information. U.S. payrolls are revised twice in the following months and benchmarked once a year to tax records; seasonally adjusted CPI is revised each February.